Crime is on a historic decline, with homicide rates approaching century lows in cities across the US
Good Good Good · 2026-07-28
Crime rates, particularly homicides, are continuing a historic decline across major U.S. cities, with nationwide killings on track to reach near century lows. Following a surge during the COVID-19 pandemic, this downward trend began in late 2022, with preliminary data suggesting the 2025 national homicide rate was likely the lowest since at least 1900. In the first half of 2026, the average homicide rate in 36 tracked cities was 51% lower than its 2022 peak and 31% below 2019 levels.
The factors driving this widespread reduction remain unclear, with researchers noting no single explanation. The decline is evident across diverse cities regardless of their political leadership, policing strategies, or economic conditions, suggesting significant macro-level influences alongside local policies. While homicides saw the steepest decline, other violent crimes also generally fell: robberies dropped 17%, gun assaults 6%, and carjackings 47% compared to the first half of 2025. Property crime also decreased, with motor vehicle theft down 20%, residential burglaries 13%, and larcenies 6%. However, drug offenses rose 12% and domestic violence incidents increased 8%, while shoplifting remained 5% above pre-pandemic levels. The differing trends among various crime types indicate complex and potentially varied underlying causes.
*The full article also explores the specific cities that experienced significant declines versus those that saw increases, and the challenges in correlating these trends with specific policy interventions.*